In the 1960s, comedians convened to discuss shows at a deli in New York called Lindy. It was there they discovered that the life expectancy of a television comedian is inversely proportional to their frequency of appearance on the medium.
The Lindy Effect is the idea that the future life expectancy of non-perishable things like books, technologies, and ideas is proportional to their current age implying that for every additional period they survive, their life expectancy increases.
Our job in venture capital is to explore new technologies, and back the founders building them. But equally important, per the Lindy effect, is our understanding of the antifragile. We must understand what is hard to disrupt and becomes more resilient to change with time.
“What’s going to change in the next 10 years?” That is a very interesting question; it’s a very common one. I almost never get the question: ‘What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?’And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two — because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time.-Jeff Bezos
For example, think of Google Translate. You can now go to China and get by without ever learning a single word. Does this mean you learned the language and the rules that dictate it or could get by living in China? The appearance of specialization by tourists to the sector will make the actual knowledge more valuable because fewer people will believe they have to learn it.
Third-party data access is a great example, it took hold as a result of previous telecom regulations and has yet to be changed in order to meet the demands of today’s technology-driven grid. We may not have a NY deli, but we have Twitter and Linkedin to discuss these trends. We know energy, like entertainment, is a dynamic industry. What concepts do you predict will stay the same and get stronger over time as the industry undergoes a once-in-a-lifetime transformation?
Originally published at https://kevindstevens.com.